【海外の反応】FX戦士くるみちゃん1話を海外の現役トレーダーが採点、「最初は負ける前提で、小さく張れ」

投資板のアニメが、今回は本当に始まったぞ。

bros, the /biz/ anime is up for real this time

デイトレって、本当にこんな感じなのか？

Is day trading really like this?

この子、マジでまんま俺だわ。

she's just like me fr fr

勝つ唯一の方法は、やらないこと。始めてない奴は、大半のFXトレーダーより上だ。

"The only way to win the game is not to play." If you haven't started, you're at least ahead of most forex traders.

損切りって何？ 草。大丈夫、頭の中で損切りできる賢い子だから。

wHaT'S a StOp-LoSs? lol it's okay, she's apparently smart enough to do mental stop-loss haha

FXはやらないけど疑問がある。30万円を投じて、最後に10万6800円の損。くるみの世界では円が数分で33%以上暴落したの？

I don't trade FX, but here is the question I have. Kurumi invested 300,000 yen. At the final scene, we see her down 106,800 yen. Are they trying to tell us, in Kurumi's world, yen crashed over 33%+ within minutes?

いや、円は1ドルあたり1円も動いてない。30万円の元手に20倍のレバレッジで、600万円ぶんを張った。大半は借金だ。

No the yen only fell by like 1 yen per usd, probably not even that. In her case she has 300k yen but was mostly leveraged 20x so she put like 6 mil yen on the trade with most of that being borrowed money.

レバレッジなのは分かるけど、20歳の信用で600万円も借りられるわけがない。初めての投資で、担保になる資産も無いし。

if it was leveraged, I understand, but being at 20 years old, no way her credit was good enough to get her a $6mil yen loan. She is first time investing too, so she has no other securities as leverage.

レバレッジを上げるために、わざと海外のFX口座を使ってる。本編で説明されてた。国内じゃ絶対にやってない。そういうイカれ方なんだ。

She's intentionally using a foreign forex account to get more leverage. It was explained in the episode but she sure as {bleep} isn't doing this on domestic, she's just nuts like that

ちなみに、個人向けのFX口座を開けば、業者と国によってはレバレッジ200倍まで出るからね。

Just so you know. If you open a FX retail account, you can get leverage up to 200x depending on the broker/country.

俺を誘惑してる？だとしたら、効いてるぞ。

are you tempting me? Because if you are, it is working lol

くるみと同じ、ドル円の短期CFDをやってる者だ。この回は完璧で、初トレードの感覚そのもの。ただ俺もトントンだから、やり方は聞くな。

As someone who trades exactly what Kurumi trades in this episode (short term intraday USDJPY, leveraged CFD FX), I must say that this episode is ABSOLUTE PERFECTION. Kurumi's first trade is exactly what it feels like before you start to come to grips with the psychology of making an entry. … Also, I'm not long-term profitable and just break-even, so don't ask me how to trade

そこそこ勝ってる側だけど、あの『良いエントリー』で椅子から落ちかけた。5分足の直近高値を支持線に見る？あんなのノイズだ。

As a fairly successful trader myself … Her 'good entry point' almost had me fall out of my chair laughing. It's on a 5 minute chart … Retesting the most recent high on a 5 minute chart as support? That's not support....you're on a 5 minute chart a lot of this is just noise lol

くるみは初回で30単位ぶん買い込んでた。必要な量の30倍だ。完全な素人なのに勝つつもりでいた。最初は負ける前提で、小さく張れ。

it looked like kurumi bought 30 units worth on her first trade. … Kurumi put down 30x more than she needed to, and expected to win even tough she's a complete amateur. … So trade with as little as you can from the get go and expect to lose.

30万ドル負けてから勝ちに転じた10年選手だ。勝ってる人は週足より短い足は見ない。5分足の『良いエントリー』で倒れかけた。

As someone with EXTENSIVE trading experience (10+ years, finally figured it out after losing like 300k+ net, but now up) … Anyone who actually trades successfully pretty much never trades on anything shorter than the weekly chart … I almost fell over laughing when she's like 'I got a good entry point' on like a 5 minute chart LOL.

俺もデイトレーダーだけど、先物専門でFXは知らない。それでも5分足で取引なんて聞くだけで狂気だ。9割が負けるのには理由がある。

I'm a day trader, but prediction markets / futures. I don't have any experience with Forex. Trading 5min charts just sounds like insanity. There's a reason why 90% of day traders lose money.

誰か、この人たちの悪い判断を全部解剖する動画を作ってくれ。

I want someone doing a dissection video on all the bad decisions/practice they're doing

FXに正解は無い。ESMAの報告では個人の74〜89%が損をしてる。くるみの一番の間違いは、最初から大きすぎるポジションだ。

There aren't a lot of canon truths when it comes to how to trade FX. … ESMA Report: It was found that between 74%-89% of retail traders lose money trading CFDs and forex. … her first and most dramatic mistake was starting with such a large position.

>ESMAの報告では個人の74〜89%が損をしてる
いやいや、俺はきっと勝つ側の少数派だよな？

> ESMA Report: It was found that between 74%-89% of retail traders lose money trading CFDs and forex.
naaah, surely I will be the successful minority right? (/j)

割合で見るのは馬鹿だ。9割は技能が付くほど努力してない。それを『トレーダー』と呼ぶのは、一年生をエンジニアと呼ぶようなものだ。

I think looking at the percentages like this is kind of stupid. 90% of people don't get to the stage where they've actually put in enough time or effort to accumulate the skill required to trade. … Calling the large majority of traders "traders", is like calling someone who just started a comp sci degree a computer engineer.

デモ口座で試したら、おや、勝ってる。自分は1割の側かも。ネタバレすると、9割の全員がそう信じる理由を持ってる。デモ口座のおかげで。

thought you might give a shot on a practice account... and hey! What do you know, you are actually profitable on the demo!!! Well now, maybe, just maybe... you might be in the 10%? Spoiler: everyone in the 90% has some reason to believe their destiny lies in the 10%, especially thanks to demo accounts lol

最初の間違いはFXに手を出したこと。レバレッジ無しじゃFXは儲からない。小さく儲けるだけでいいなら、そもそもなぜFXをやるんだ？

The first bad decision was getting into FX trading. … If you don't leverage, you don't make enough in FX trading. If you are OK with making only small amount, why are you doing FX trading in the first place?

>34倍のレバレッジ
最高だな

>34 times leverage
good {bleep}

くるみも母も、損切り注文を知らなかったのか？ 持ってたFXの本の最初に出てくる話だろ。大金も、たぶん母の命も救えたのに。

it seems neither Kurumi nor her mum learned about stop-loss orders? Surely that would've been one of the first topics they read about in those FX books they had. Would've saved them a lot of money (and possibly the mum's life).

損切りを置くのは、紙の手の弱虫だけだ。本物は、追証を食らうまで握る。

You only set stop losses if you have weak paper hands. Real ones hold until they get margin called

損切り？ むしろ「利益止め」だろ

Stop loss? More like stop gains

新人の個人トレーダーによくあるのが、最初は損切りと利確を計画に書いておいて、あとで希望と自己弁護で取り消すやつだ。

one thing that's quite common amongst new retail traders is coming up with an initial plan including S/L and T/P and then cancelling them on hopium/copium.

前に1%で売ったら、数分で戻って1万ドル取り損ねた。だから今回は待つ。お、3%。5%……これ以上は下がらない、よな？

"The last time it dropped 1% I sold and lost $1000, then within minutes it clilmbed back on and I could've made $10k. So I'll wait a little longer this time. Ooh, 3% this time. 5%... IT CAN'T JUST KEEP ON DROPPING, RIGHT?"

損切り無しで取引する馬鹿がどこにいる？ 自業自得だ。

what kind of moron trades without stop losses?
they deserved it

皮肉だが、バックテストでは損切りは逆に成績を悪くする。代わりに最悪を想定したサイズで張って、時間で撤退するんだ。

Ironically, stop losses just make things worse in backtesting. Instead, what you have to do is size for the worst case and use time stops instead.

それか、トレーリングターゲットだな。

Either that or trailing targets.

親父に教わったのは一つだけ。
>損切りが要るほど危ない取引なら、その取引自体が悪い案だ。
この作品の登場人物は、誰も一生理解しなさそうだ。

I only learned one thing from my old man:
>If a trade is risky enough that stop loss looks like a good idea, the trade itself is a bad idea.
and it sounds like nobody in FX Senshi Kurumi-chan will ever understand this concept.

損切りは保証されない。業者が正しく執行しても、相場が速いと実際に決済される頃には、もっと大きく損している。

Note that SLs are NOT guaranteed and that even when correctly executed by the broker, the market itself can move incredibly quickly, resulting in a much larger loss by the time your position is actually liquidated.

追加料金を払えば保証付きの損切りを出す業者もある。英国にはあったと思う、たぶん笑

Some brokers offer guaranteed stop losses for extra cost if triggered, at least in the UK I think lol

演出なのは分かるけど、この登場人物たち、誰も損切りって聞いたことないのか？

I get that its for dramatic effect but have none of these characters heard about a Stop-Loss?

追証があるんだから、そんなものは要らないだろ。

You don't need that {bleep} when margin call already exists.

損切りは利益を食うだけだ。握ったほうがいい。ただ握ってればいいのに、何であの子たちが泣き叫ぶのか分からん。

Stop-Loss eats into your profits, it's better to hold. I don't understand why the girls cry and screech when all they had do is just hold.

証拠金取引だから握れないんだよ。逆に行ったら、業者が損のまま強制的に決済する。

Its a margin trade they can't. if the trade work against them, then the broker close the position for a loss

あ

Oh

損は、出た時に初めて確定するんだ！ 居続ける限り、まだ負けてない！

You only realize your losses when you get out! As long as you stay in, you haven't lost yet!

それか、追証で処刑されるかだな。

That or you get executed by the margin call

日本ではFXが暇な主婦に売り込まれた。だから他の国に無いFX文化が残ってる。

FX was shilled in Japan by aiming for bored housewives which is why Japan still had a culture of FX when the rest of the world doesn't.

>暇な主婦を狙った賭博の広告
悪だな。

>gambling adverts targeting bored housewives
Evil

当時の日本の主婦が、どうやってパソコンの使い方を知ってたんだ？

how did japanese housewives even know how to use computers back then?

知らなかったさ。本の手引きを読んで、同じことをしてる主婦の友達に聞きながらやったんだ。

They didn’t, they follow some guides they see and read in the books and if they have other housewives friends doing this then they ask them on how to do it.

日本で金融とかトレードって盛んなのか？ずっと韓国のものだと思ってた。

is finance/trading big in japan? I always thought it was more a south korean thing

日本は人口に対する個人トレーダーの割合が、たぶん世界一だぞ。

Japan has probably the highest % of retail traders among the population

偶然だが、FXトレーダーの数は中国が最多だ。人口比ならシンガポール、英国、日本。アフリカですら米国より多い。

China has the most FX traders, coincidentally. The Singapore, the UK, and Japan have the most FX traders per capita. Even Africa has more FX traders than the USA.

歴史上この時期にドル円を本気で触るなんて、聞いた中で最も退廃的だ。ここ数十年で、いや史上最悪の乱高下と逆風の時期だぞ。

You seriously trading USDJPY at this particular point in history is the most degenerate thing I've ever heard. You could not pick a more volatile and adverse point in the last few decades, maybe ever.

日本で個人FXは、いちばん速くて有名な経済的自殺の道だ。パチンコも競馬も、下手なFXより負けが遅い。

Retail fx is like one of the fastest and most known ways to financial suicide in Japan. Pachinko and horse races lose money more slowly than a bad fx trader

一方でFXトレーダーは、日銀が失敗続きの介入を繰り返す中、死にゆく通貨としての円を相手にしてる。

Meanwhile FX traders dealing with yen as a dying currency as the BoJ continues to perform failing interventions.

くるみの場合、キャリートレードのほうが賢かっただろう。日銀がほぼ0%で米国が5%なら、円でドルを買って持つだけでいい。

In Kurumi's case, it probably would have been smarter to execute carry trades. Because the Bank of Japan has interest at ~0% and the US has it at 5%, she could buy JPY/USD pairs and just hold them.

何度も利上げしたが、円の立場はひどすぎて、出口はドルが紙くずになることだけ。ハイパーインフレでもいいが、日本の終わりだ。

They raised the rates several times already but the yen is in such a TERRIBLE position that their only way out is the USD becoming toilet paper.
Well, they can also accept hyperinflation but then it's the end of Japan as we know it.

日本人は文字どおりベッドの下に金を隠す。株式市場がひどすぎるからだ。バブルがはじけて以来、30年の横ばい相場だぞ。

The Japanese literally hide money under their beds because their stock market is so horrible. They've were in a 30 year crab market since the speculative bubble popped.

>株式市場がひどすぎるからだ
「ひどかった」だ。日経は2012年から650%上がってる。

>because their stock market is so horrible
*Was
The Nikkei is up 650% since 2012

日本の30年の経済停滞がFXとキャリートレードの急増を招いた。だが株より危険で、多くの人を破産させた。

Japan’s three decades of economic stagnation led to a surge in FX trading and carry trades, but these are also riskier than investing in stocks and caused many people to go bankrupt.

父親のこの台詞だけど、彼は正しかった？

was he right?

いや。金で幸せは買えないと言う奴は嘘つきか、上司にくたばれって言って辞める喜びを知らないだけだ。

No.
Whoever said money doesn't buy happiness is either a liar or simply never experienced the joy of being able to tell your boss to go {bleep} himself and quit your job.

>上司にくたばれって言って辞める喜び
で、その後は何が幸せなんだ？ また辞めるために新しい仕事を探すのか？

>the joy of being able to tell your boss to go {bleep} himself and quit your job.
but what makes you happy after that? or do you keep getting new jobs so you can quit them again?

>その後は何が幸せなんだ？
俺が言ってるのはファイアだ。投資の収入で暮らして、もう3年働いてない。起きたい時に起きて、したいことをする。

>but what makes you happy after that?
I am talking about FIRE. I live off my investments and I dont need to work - haven't worked in 3 years I wake up whenever I want do whatever I want.

俺はそれを6年やってるが、日課の無い生活が正直こたえてきた。仕事は金だけじゃないと、少しずつ分かり始めてる。

I've been doing this for six years and the lack of routine is actually starting to wear on me. Slowly starting to realize work is about more than money.

>仕事は金だけじゃないと分かり始めてる
よく言うよ、奴隷。

>Slowly starting to realize work is about more than money.
Nice try, slave.

奴隷と言われても仕方ない。システムに飼い慣らされた人間を外に出すのは、動物を野に放すのと同じだ。何をすればいいか分からなくなる。

He's not wrong unfortunately. some people are so enslaved to the system that taking them out of it will be like releasing a domesticated animal into the wild. they dont know what to do

自由な時間を持ったことがないから言えるんだ。経験したこともない理想と他人を比べてる。無知の中で生きてるな。

Easy to say when you've never had free time. You're comparing others to an ideal you have never experienced. You live in ignorance.

>自由な時間を持ったことがないから言えるんだ
ファイアで引退した本人だぞ。自由な時間なら山ほどある。俺はファイアの夢を生きてる。

>Easy to say when you've never had free time.
I'm the FIRE anon. I got plenty of free time.
Whatever man, I am living my FIRE dream.

笑える。上等な人生を自慢する奴が、こんな掃き溜めみたいなサイトに居座ってるんだからな。本当に成功してるなら、掃き溜めから離れて生きろよ。

LMAO, I love seeing delusional anons post their supposedly superior life while still being on this {bleep} website. Go live your life and stay away from the cesspool, if you truly are that successful in life.

30代後半だが、金があれば今すぐ辞める。上司はむしろ丁重だが、会社が人生の全部を支配してることに変わりはない。週に最低40時間は職場だ。

In my late 30s now, and I would quit my job instantly, without any hesitation, if I had the financial resources to do so. My boss is actually very polite to me, but it doesn't change the fact that the business controls my entire life. 40 hours a week minimum I'm at work.

悪いが、それは技能の問題だ。『尊敬』じゃなく『不可欠』になるんだ。無茶を言えば辞める、代わりは見つからない、と互いに分かってる関係だ。

I'm really sorry, anon, but this is a skill issue. It's not "respected", it's indispensable. The unpsoken agreement is you give me {bleep}, I leave, and we both know you will have a very hard time replacing me.

>雇い主から最低限の敬意ももらえない
>簡単に転職できると言いながら辞めない
完璧な家畜だな。

>doesn't even get basic respect from his employer
>won't leave even though he claims he could easily swap jobs
You are perfect cattle.

退屈だから働く、という時点で答えが出てる。奴隷は仕事の外に楽しみを見つけられない。でもここに書き込んでる時点で、全部なりきりだろうけどな。

The fact that you need to work because you're bored says it. The slave can't find enjoyment outside of work. But obviously this is all just larp cause you're posting here lmao

木曜の正午だぞ。何がなりきりだ。

It's noon on a thursday what is the larp

『投資はしてもいいが、幸せになるのに必要ではない』の場面を切り出して、WSBに貼りたくなった。皮肉じゃなく本気で。

I unironically felt like clipping the "It's okay to invest but you don't need it to be happy" and posting it on r/wsb.

うちの父もトレード依存で、最近数百万ドルを失った。くるみが母に言った台詞を、自分も一字一句同じに言った。この作品は少しも誇張していない。

it describes accurately to what my relationship with my dad is like as he is addicted to trading. He recently lost millions in USD. I have said some of what Kurumi said to her mom syllable for syllable. The anime is very accurate to how gambling/trading can affect families, and it does not exaggerate at all.

うちは兄が賭博の借金の肩代わりに、母を巻き込もうとした。他人を暖めるために自分を燃やすな。助けられる範囲で助けて、自分まで傷つくな。

my brother tried to sell out my mom to bail him out of a gambling debt. you shouldnt burn yourself to keep others warm. Help him as you could, but dont let yourself hurt in the process.